carrot weather achievements privacy freak

#Carrot weather achievements privacy freak full

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Last summer, meteorologists were sure that a strong El Nino was going to occur this winter. And we knew what this typically for NW weather:īefore January first there is no real correlation with precipitation or temperature.Īfter January 1, the Northwest tends to be warmer than normal, with precipitation SLIGHTLY below normal, little snowfall near sea level, and modestly below normal snow in the mountains, resulting in the snowpack on April 1 ending up around 80% of normal. There is also a tendency after January 1 to have a trough over the northeast Pacific, with California ending up wetter than normal. We also forecast that El Nino would kill the BLOB. Nick Bond, WA State Climatologist, was saying the same thing, as were many other local meteorologists.īelieve it or not.reality has followed these predictions quite closely. The BLOB is dead, as shown by the latest sea surface temperature analysis, with modestly warm water immediately off the coast (typical of El Nino) and cooler than normal water offshore (blue colors). There is always some weather chaos that can not be accounted for in a long range forecast. Also, PNW weather is less impacted by El Nino conditions than other parts of the world.Įl Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)conditions are based on a 3 month running mean temperature anomalies in the Nino regions.

Here is a list of strong El Nino and La Nina. There has not been a strong La Nina since 1988.Īn absence of very strong El Nino prior to 1982. Because ENSO conditions are based on Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies and global SST have warmed, the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI)is biased upward. Subtract the warmer ocean values due to GW from the present El Nino anomaly and it becomes much less strong. The December global temperature anomaly for the oceans was 0.83 C (NOAA).

#Carrot weather achievements privacy freak full

El Nino alone does not account for the full 0.83C anomaly. So I disagree with those meteorologists who have called this a 'Godzilla' El Nino. It's probably a moderate to strong El Nino. What does this mean for the future? As global SST continue to warm, El Nino conditions of > +0.5C anomaly will be normal. There will be a need to adjust the anomaly threshold upwards.Īll that said, GW is still below the threshold that most climatologists believe will lead to significant climate change (1.5C). So I don't expect glaciers to collapse or the ocean levels to surge with a December land/sea anomaly of 1.11C.Ī back of an envelop calculation points to the 2030s as the first decade when GW meets or exceeds 1.5C.